Perhaps there’s hope for Chrysler, after all

At the end of the year, it’s the custom to make predictions for the next year – no less so in the magazine business than in any other. So, New York magazine has decided to offer it’s business predictions for 2008, among which is this:
 
“In the first real debacle of the private-equity era, Cerberus Capital Management, the quiet hedge-fund king, fails in its bid to resuscitate Chrysler—not a surprising turn, given that it picked Bob “I ruined Home Depot and all I got was $200 million” Nardelli to run the country’s worst car company.

The combination of Chrysler and the 51 percent of GM’s lousy mortgage business that it paid top dollar for forces former Treasury secretary John Snow to seek a bailout for Cerberus. Amazingly, given the love of hedge-fund contributions by both parties, Congress agrees and writes checks for billions to save Cerberus’ wealthy investors. Call the Chrysler failure a lock. The bailout? I’d say 5 to 1.”
 
Well, when the conventional wisdom goes one way, that’s often a sign that the smart way is the other way. Among the other future guesses at New York are $5 per gallon gasoline, a federal bailout of Citigroup, and Verizon becoming a cable company. 
 
So, maybe there’s hope for Chrysler, after all.
 
The magazine’s prognosticator – James J. Cramer – has a track record.
 
In 2005, he predicted that the year would bring a boom in domestic oil production, a national ID card, and social security reform, along with predicting that all domestic airlines would go bankrupt. 
 
In 2006, he predicted that General Motors would file for bankruptcy.
 
On the other hand, maybe Bob Nardelli ought not get too comfortable. The notion that Congress would bail out Cerberus and Chrysler seems pretty far-fetched.
 
Bob Nardelli isn’t Lee Iacoca.