As Tesla Motors rises to unfathomable heights, some may not be able to imagine the technology and automotive giant falling from its graces. With minimal noteworthy competition, Teslas have shaped the electric car market, while threatening the extinction of the internal combustion engine. Just like the Roman Empire, Tesla’s dominance has spread far passed the borders of its home country. However, just like the Roman Empire, will Tesla Motors one day fall? Often, companies that are the first to kick down the door are the ones that fall. TiVo was a major innovator, until DVRs caught up using a similar technology. Atari pioneered video games as we know today, but failed to understand the very industry they dominated.
Tesla Motors has to prioritize future proofing just as much as it has to prioritize remaining a corporate superpower. It remains number one in EV sales nationally, and competitors are slowly catching up in sales figures, autonomy, and performance. Soon, direct competitors will become direct matches in all categories. Will Tesla continue to have the luxury of focusing on other business endeavors like gaming software and solar roofing, while paying less attention to other automakers attempting to catch up? Does Tesla Motors have any contenders to fear?
1 Ford
Ford has shown the world that it is willing to do what is necessary to stay relevant to the times. The carmaker has become infamous for axing some of its best-selling offerings in order to stay ahead. Ford does not wait on its competitors to act first. It has made ripples in the automotive industry with many internal combustion options, and now it's Mustang Mach-E. The hate this vehicle has had to overcome to win car enthusiasts over is a testament to Ford's "all or nothing" focus. With competitive specs and a face that subjectively looks better in person, the Ford Mustang Mach-E has outsold the Tesla Model X at 39,458 sales in 2022. The Mach-E was not very far behind Tesla’s Model S sales at 42,606 examples. If Ford has done this well with its first attempt at an EV in this new era, imagine the impact the Ford Lightning will have in the very near future. Already, Ford is sitting at the same exclusive table as Tesla.
2 BYD
The auto giant with multiple sub-brands has been making ripples in the Asian auto market. Founded in the same year as Tesla, BYD has outpaced Tesla in production numbers in recent years. In the first quarter of 2022, BYD sold 641,400 units to Tesla’s 564,000 units. In the first quarter of 2023, BYD sold 552,076 units to Tesla’s 422,875 units. This Chinese carmaker is considered the world’s largest producer of EVs and plug-in hybrids. Aside from proven sales figures, BYD is a threat to Tesla, due to a more diverse selection, attention to material quality, and focus on hands-on driver experience. Producing cars that can drive on three wheels, the YangWang U9, seems more promising than a car that can fart (Tesla Model 3). Though BYD has minimal presence in the Western world, Tesla would eventually be forced to focus less on integrations of virtual entertainment, and more on beautiful interiors. Party tricks will not always suffice.
3 Mercedes-Benz
One focus that Tesla hasn’t been the strongest with is quality control. Mercedes-Benz's EQS lineup is uber-luxury. It is a proper status symbol that mixes traditional luxurious standards with the latest in cutting-edge technology. Tesla's are generally just cutting-edge technology. Mercedes-Benz has expanded its selection to AMG and Maybach models. The carmaker is producing EVs that cover multiple bases in which makes any car desirable. Some may feel that the design language of the EQS is too bubbly and strange, but has any Tesla taken on an appearance of normalcy following the Model S? The Hyperscreen, quilted leather seating, and egg-shaped canopy is enough to challenge Tesla fans on what a status symbol truly is. Maybe the EQS is for an older, more mature crowd, and that's where Mercedes can get a leg up.
4 Hyundai
Hyundai Motor Group announced its goal to become one of the top three EV manufacturers by 2030 with an $18 billion investment plan. The Group will expand annual EV production in Korea to 1.51 million units and worldwide by 3.64 units by 2030. With a primary focus on expanding in the manufacturer’s home country, Hyundai’s focus is to spread swiftly and build an ecosystem that they can dominate, which would make Tesla Motors less competitive in the neighboring areas that Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis sell best. Before the announcement of this goal, Hyundai had already been making strides with its IONIQ models and its hydrogen-powered concept cars. With generally positive press, Hyundai seems like a promising threat to Tesla Motors, especially considering that by 2030, they may be offering as many as 31 EV models.
5 Chevrolet
Back when electric cars were widely shunned by the public, Chevrolet gave birth to the Volt in 2011. In its first months of production, the Chevy Volt was named “2011 Motor Trend Car of the Year” and “2011 Green Car of the Year”. The Volt was Green Car Journal’s first electric car to win the top prize. The potential seen in Chevy’s efforts carried into their extensive line-up of EV options. Its current and upcoming models are the Silverado EV, Blazer EV, and the Equinox EV. The Bolt EV and the Bolt EUV were recently retired and will be killed off by the end of the year. Chevy’s diverse offerings aren’t expected to stop just there. With over a decade of production run of EVs on the market, Chevrolet is one of the most invested and ambitious carmakers with an EV portfolio. As EVs continue to replace internal combustion engines, there will be Chevy loyalists and newcomers who won’t even consider a Tesla when making the switch over to electric.
6 Lucid
Lucid is the carmaker that created an EV production sedan that’s quicker than a Tesla Model S Plaid. Performance is what Tesla has become known for by the mainstream public. Imagine the sales numbers and conversations that’ll follow when the mainstream public learns of the Lucid Air Sapphire. This brand has topped Tesla in available cargo space, driving range, interior quality, and autonomous technology. Perhaps, that is to be expected by a new EV company made up of former Tesla employees. Customers across the nation are slowly taking an interest in Lucid and placing their orders. Lucid is likely the most competitive brand to Tesla’s sedans in terms of specifications. As the Lucid Air becomes more popular and the brand’s product line expands, Tesla may have much to fear.
7 Rivian
For a brand that is dominating its own lane, much of its success may come from not going up against Tesla directly. Rivian is another brand with teams made up of former Tesla employees. The brand's niche direction in the EV market is impressive. Rivian has brought the world an outdoor lifestyle fleet of vehicles. The influence of the R1T and R1S may become similar to the Jeep Wrangler, making them exempt from having to face competition that other EVs may not be able to avoid. It would be difficult for Tesla to challenge Rivian, if they ever entered the off-roading market segment. For vehicle classifications that Tesla does not prioritize, Rivian may do well expanding to those. Rivian is likely a threat later into the future, if not now.
8 Polestar
Polestar is born of a company with a reputation that precedes itself, and that company is Volvo. The automaker that invented the three-point seat belt continues to be one of the safest carmakers on the market. Now, what happens when their sub-brand becomes a standalone battery electric vehicle company? Polestar raises $890 million to further invest in its all-electric lineup. The company has since expanded to three readily available models and three more not yet in production. Polestar uses a numbering system similar to Tesla’s lettering system to categorize their vehicles by different platforms. Just like Tesla, these options include a compact sedan, a crossover, a full-size sedan (unreleased), and options not currently offered by Tesla Motors. It appears as if Polestar is using Tesla as a template to catch up with and possibly beat Tesla.
9 Cadillac
With the introduction of the Lyriq and Celestiq, Cadillac has demonstrated the ambitious execution of new-age luxury. The Cadillac Lyriq went onto the market with an opening sticker price of $58,590. This felt like a lowball offer for an autonomous vehicle that gives its owner concept-car styling. It’s arguably a better choice than the Tesla Model Y. The Lyriq gets 312 miles on a charge, compared to Tesla’s base 303 miles. Horsepower numbers and dimensions are closely comparable. More impressively, for about $10,000 more than a base Tesla Model Y, Cadillac offers a level of luxury that seems to be comparable to other luxury brands with a six-figure selling point. The Celestiq takes on similar design queues, from the exaggerated tail lights to the grille that gives a Disney castle-reminiscent light show. Cadillac may convert Tesla customers who are tired of the bland, cheap interior and exterior design.
10 Zoox
In this current generation, rentals, subscriptions, and ride-shares have expanded in popularity over necessity (depending on the person). Why get stuck in a city, when you can rent a home? Why buy individual CDs, when you can subscribe to infinite libraries of music? Why lease a car, when you can Uber, Lyft, or Zoox? Although Gen Zs love Teslas, Gen Zs also love the idea of not driving. Tesla's Autopark and Summon features may make driving less scary and stressful, but it requires the driver to still drive, unlike Zoox. What makes Zoox a threat is that every rider is a passenger. This niche brand can gobble up a whole demographic of paying customers who can do without a car note and car insurance. As interest rates rise and production volumes fall, Elon claims "Tesla is in a uniquely strong strategic position because we're the only ones making cars that technically we could sell for zero profit for now…" Although this strategy can harm the economics of its most fierce competitors, Zoox may be the least likely manufacturer at risk. This means that Telsa's sacrifice would go unnoticed by this one promising brand.